April / May Pricing Forecast

Historically sales slow down post 4/20 for most producers and processors. Retail shops tend to take advantage of the deals and specials leading up to the holiday which can result in an overstock of inventory. This dynamic could create some volatility in the market. The charts below will give you an idea of where the market is currently at as well as our predictions for May.

One major update from Team Kush is that we have recently seen a significant boost in demand for outdoor flower and trim for extraction. Please post your inventory on the marketplace or send it to tyler@kushmarketplace.com. We suggest using the price guidance below to increase your odds of closing a deal!

 

Indoor Flower
Max Buyer Interest Price: $2.30/g
Average Asking Price: $1.44/g
Highest Purchase Price: $1.75/g
Average Purchase Price: $1.30/g
Lowest Purchase Price: $0.73/g

Outdoor Flower
Max Buyer Interest Price: $1.18/g
Average Asking Price: $0.57/g
Highest Purchase Price: $0.65/g
Average Purchase Price: $0.38/g
Lowest Purchase Price: $0.16/g


For May, we don’t expect any major changes in price for indoor or outdoor flower. Based on our interactions with sellers, we don’t believe the market can sustain anymore price drops.

The market has dropped to an average of $0.38/g outdoor & $1.30/g for indoor flower. Indoor flower hasn’t changed much price wise, but outdoor has dropped 24% and is down 12 cents from last month. From our perspective, the price reduction on outdoor flower is due to the large full harvest purchases through the platform. We have seen a surge of buyers purchasing full harvests total remaining inventory specifically for extraction. These large purchases have pushed the price down.

At this point most large farms are preparing to put plants in the ground and these big purchases provide the much needed capital to a depressed market. To many, these buyers have been a saving grace. We expect a trickle down effect to occur on concentrate prices over the next 2 months, but we believe flower prices have stabilized.

For outdoor bud, we’re seeing untested extraction material sub 27 cents, tested B buds for prerolls at 30-35 cents, and tested flower between 35 & 50 cents.

Indoor popcorn is between $0.65 & $0.85/g. Tested flower anywhere from $1/g to $1.60/g depending on trim and QA. Remember these are bulk unpackaged wholesale prices.

 

 

Indoor Trim
Max Buyer Interest Price: $0.57/g
Average Asking Price: $0.55/g
Highest Purchase Price: $0.50/g
Average Purchase Price: $0.40/g
Lowest Purchase Price: $0.30/g

Outdoor Trim
Max Buyer Interest Price: $0.35/g
Average Asking Price: $0.24/g
Highest Purchase Price: $0.20/g
Average Purchase Price: $0.13/g
Lowest Purchase Price: $0.09/g


In May, we expect indoor trim prices to be stable. Unfortunately, we could see outdoor trim prices drop below 5 cents a gram.

Average asking price for indoor trim has dropped 12 cents. The average purchase price has risen 17% to $0.40/g. The lowest purchase price has stayed the same around $0.30.

Average asking price for outdoor trim has dropped 29% down to $0.24/g which is much closer to average purchase prices. In February trim sales stalled because the average asking price was $0.34/g. Many buyers wouldn’t even look at trim above the current max interested price set at $0.35/g.

Last month, we saw a huge spike in trim sales. The average purchase price is $0.13/g and we have seen hundreds if not thousands of pounds in the $0.07 – $0.15/g range depending on quality. We expect this trim to continue, but we also expect the price to drop.

 

DONT FORGET:

If you plan to attend our Farmers Market Event in June, please reach out to our team as soon as possible. The event always sells out, and we’re already half way there. Retail shops from around the state attend our event to find new brands to put on the shelves. You can reach us at (425) 681-0762 or find information on kushmarketplace.com.

Notes to Consider

The data visualizations above were built using asking price and analytics from deals closed through the Kush Marketplace platform. You will see a large price range in each category because there is such variance in product type & quality. For example, A-buds, B-buds, popcorn, and failed lots all fall under the same category of either Outdoor or Indoor flower depending on the grow environment.

Our analysis uses a couple of numbers to gain insight. First we average the max interested price from buyers. This number lets us know the max price buyers will even look at for individual product categories. This number is a great indicator of where the market is going. Secondly, we take a look at the average listing / asking price from sellers. This gives us an idea of where farms would like to be price wise. Next we analyze the deals that have closed through the platform. We use highest, lowest, and average price for each category. These data points gives us an idea on where the market is trending and what we can expect in the next month or so.

Let us know what you think of our analysis on social media or reply to this email.

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Please keep in mind that these prices are for Producer/Processor to Processor sales ONLY. None of these reports are built for Producer to Retailer Sales, and we have filtered the data to reflect that. We hope to add retail data soon, but until then 502 Data is a great resource. You can view live data by visiting the marketplace!

Insights like the ones above regarding price points, supply, and demand are made possible by the growth in supply and demand on the marketplace. As our data set grows, we will eventually be able to suggest prices based on quality factors and comparable products that have recently sold. We look forward to continued market adoption, and value this opportunity to serve this amazing industry!

 

 

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