September Trends: Winter Is Coming

The calm before the storm doesn’t apply to cannabis. Just days into September we are already seeing some interesting ‘pre-harvest’ trends across the wholesale cannabis marketplace.

Buyers vs. Sellers

Overall prices this month are looking unstable. There seems to be a difference in mindset between most buyers and sellers which has pushed the gap between offers and asking price wider.

The mindset for any buyer stems from the basic economics of a coming harvest, and it’s inevitable boost in supply. Tons of fresh flower and extraction material is just around the corner and more supply means that prices should be going down. Buyers will have several options for good material, and the low bid will win.

Interestingly enough, we have seen prices rise this month. The mindset of a seller right now revolves around the fact that 2017 flower is about dried up. Finding cheap extraction material or affordable flower can be difficult because light dep is fresh and at it’s highest price, while there’s very little 2017 harvest still around. The temporary drop in supply has driven some competition for extraction material which is great news for sellers. The only catch, we know the clock is ticking. If you still have 2017 flower or extraction material I would highly recommend selling it in September when it’s value and demand with be at it’s highest.

Indoor, Greenhouse, & Distillates

Most of the ‘Croptober’ focus is on the outdoor cannabis itself, but what does this mean for everyone else? From what we’ve seen, there is good news, but again it’s only temporary. In the last two months we’ve started to see outdoor flower for repackaging start to sell out or loose it’s quality. This means the demand for affordable greenhouse to indoor quality flower has spiked dramatically. We have many purchasers with hungry retail shops, and not enough cheaper flower to repackage. This trend hasn’t extended to the higher end indoor flower, since they are sourcing for lower end outdoor product lines, but now is a great time to line up large wholesale transactions with affordable ready to package flower.

Another trend we’ve seen is a shortage of crudes and distillates. Less 2017 material is making processors stretch to source for extraction. This has raised the price slightly in the last few weeks, and caused a rise in demand for oils and concentrates. If you sitting on a stock of everything from cheap crudes, to 90%+ distillates, September might be a good time to unload before supply boosts in the coming months.

Something to Think About

Looking forward there’s one trend to keep in mind, vape carts, and concentrates are the fasting growing segment of the retail market. Taking this into account, we could see these ‘pre-harvest’ trends get more dramatic each year. As processors work through more material keeping up with the end user demand, we could see the previous years harvest sell out earlier and earlier. Imagine what would happen if prices for extraction material started to rise in July instead of September?

 

Related Posts